Spatial Dynamics of Crime and Socio-economic Factors in East Java 2024: A Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression Approach

Abstract

This study highlights that spatially targeted policies are essential for reducing crime in East Java, as key socio-economic drivers particularly unemployment, poverty, population density, and economic growth vary significantly across regions. This study investigates the spatial variability of crime in East Java, Indonesia, by examining how different socio-economic factors contribute to crime patterns using the Geographically Weighted Negative Binomial Regression (GWNBR) approach. The analysis covers 38 districts and cities, with crime counts as the response variable and six socio-economic indicators number of social assistance beneficiary households, open unemployment rate, number of poor residents, population density, Gini index, and economic growth rate as explanatory variables. The modeling process began with a Poisson regression but revealed substantial overdispersion, prompting the use of the Negative Binomial model. Among all models tested, GWNBR provided the best fit, reflected by the lowest AIC value (406.6973), significantly outperforming the Poisson and Negative Binomial models. Spatial diagnostic tests further confirmed that crime distribution in East Java is influenced by both local spatial interaction and regional disparities. Empirical results show that unemployment, poverty, population density, and economic growth are significant and positive determinants of crime in many areas, whereas the effects of social assistance beneficiaries and income inequality vary depending on local characteristics. Surabaya the region with the highest crime incidence exhibits significant positive contributions from all predictors, highlighting the complex socio-economic pressures in large urban environments. These findings underscore the importance of geographically targeted policies, such as labor-market interventions in regions where unemployment strongly influences crime, expanded welfare programs in areas where poverty has a dominant impact, and improved urban planning in densely populated cities. This study aligns with Indonesia's commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Goal 1 (No Poverty) and Goal 16 (Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions), by offering evidence-based recommendations to support crime reduction and social welfare enhancement.