Predicting the inflation rate in Iraq using multi-time series models ARIMAX with Daubechies Wavelet

Authors

  • Adhab Nawaf Mahmood Al-Hussein Department of Statistics and Informatics, College of Computer Science and Mathematics, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq
  • Najlaa Saad Ibrahim Department of Statistics and Informatics, College of Computer Science and Mathematics, University of Mosul, Mosul, Iraq

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-3822

Keywords:

Daubechies Wavelet, ARIMAX model, Inflation rate, forecasting

Abstract

This research utilizes a hybrid model combining the Daubechies Wavelet Transform with the ARIMAX model to eliminate noise and improve the characteristics of the two time series for forecasting the inflation rate in Iraq. Inflation is a major negative economic phenomenon affecting most economies worldwide due to its impact on various economic, social, and other sectors. This study compares the performance of the ARIMAX model before and after applying the wavelet transform to the inflation rate (an internal variable) and oil prices (an external variable) during the period from December 2010 to January 2024. The RMSE and MAE criteria were used to assess the forecast accuracy. The results showed the model’s superiority after applying the Daubechies Wavelet, as it exhibited the lowest values for the forecast accuracy criteria. This hybrid approach is preferred for forecasting time series with high volatility.

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Published

2026-06-01

How to Cite

Al-Hussein, A. N. M., & Ibrahim, N. S. (2026). Predicting the inflation rate in Iraq using multi-time series models ARIMAX with Daubechies Wavelet. Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing. https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-3822

Issue

Online First

Section

Research Articles

License

Copyright (c) 2026 Adhab Nawaf Mahmood Al-Hussein, Najlaa Saad Ibrahim

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