A New Efficient Biased Estimator in Overdispersed Count Regression for Effectively Handling Multicollinearity in COVID-19 Data from Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Count data are widely encountered in many scientific fields, particularly in healthcare and epidemiology. One of the most commonly used approaches for analyzing such data is the negative binomial regression model (NBRM), due to its simplicity and effectiveness in modeling event frequencies. Despite its popularity, the presence of severe multicollinearity among explanatory variables can substantially inflate the variance of parameter estimates and reduce the reliability of statistical inference. To address this issue, this study proposes an improved shrinkage estimator for the NBRM, referred to as a novel class of negative binomial Liu-type estimator. The proposed estimator combines the advantages of ridge regression and the Liu estimator, aiming to reduce estimation variance while maintaining stable parameter estimates under conditions of multicollinearity. The proposed estimator is compared with the traditional maximum likelihood estimator, as well as existing ridge and Liu-type estimators, using performance measures such as the mean squared error. Its performance is evaluated through extensive Monte Carlo simulation experiments under different levels of multicollinearity and sample sizes. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed estimator provides more accurate and stable estimates than the competing methods, particularly in the presence of high multicollinearity. To illustrate the practical applicability of the proposed approach, the method is applied to a real-world healthcare dataset related to COVID-19 cases in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The empirical results confirm the effectiveness of the proposed estimator in improving estimation accuracy and model stability when modeling multivariate healthcare count data. Overall, the proposed estimator offers a useful alternative for modeling multicollinear healthcare count data and enhances the reliability of statistical analysis in applied health research.