The Risk of Contagion Spreading and its Optimal Control in the Economy

  • Olena Kostylenko Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
  • Helena Sofia Rodrigues School of Business Studies, Polytechnic Institute of Viana do Castelo, 4930-678 Valenc¸a, Portugal
  • Delfim F. M. Torres Center for Research and Development in Mathematics and Applications (CIDMA), Department of Mathematics, University of Aveiro, 3810-193 Aveiro, Portugal
Keywords: Contagion, Financial Virus, Infection Spreading, Epidemiological Model, Network, Optimal Control.

Abstract

The global crisis of 2008 provoked a heightened interest among scientists to study the phenomenon, its propagation and negative consequences. The process of modelling the spread of a virus is commonly used in epidemiology.Conceptually, the spread of a disease among a population is similar to the contagion process in economy. This similarity allows considering the contagion in the world financial system using the same mathematical model of infection spread that is often used in epidemiology. Our research focuses on the dynamic behaviour of contagion spreading in the global financial network. The effect of infection by a systemic spread of risks in the network of national banking systems of countries is tested. An optimal control problem is then formulated to simulate a control that may avoid significant financial losses. The results show that the proposed approach describes well the reality of the world economy, and emphasizes the importance of international relations between countries on the financial stability.

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Published
2019-08-17
How to Cite
Kostylenko, O., Rodrigues, H. S., & Torres, D. F. M. (2019). The Risk of Contagion Spreading and its Optimal Control in the Economy. Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing, 7(3), 578-587. https://doi.org/10.19139/soic.v7i3.833
Section
Research Articles