A Tokenized Sovereign Debt Conversion Mechanism for Dynamic Public Debt Reduction

Tokenized Sovereign Debt Conversion

  • Kiarash Firouzi Allameh Tabataba'i University
DOI: https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-3108
Keywords: Sovereign debt, Tokenization, Jump-diffusion, Regime-switching, Smart contracts, Debt conversion.

Abstract

In this paper, we present the Tokenized Sovereign Debt Conversion Mechanism (TSDCM), a smart-contracted instrument that, upon meeting both debt-to-GDP and GDP-growth thresholds, automates the retirement of sovereign debt. TSDCM initiates the conversion of a portion of outstanding bonds into performance-linked tokens by integrating a two-state regime-switching jump-diffusion framework into decentralized protocols. We prove finite-time activation and expected debt reduction through new propositions, establish the existence and uniqueness of the underlying stochastic processes, and introduce a main theorem that ensures a strict decline in expected debt levels. With significant tail-risk mitigation, calibration using IMF data and MATLAB Monte Carlo simulations shows a 20–25\% decrease in expected debt-to-GDP ratios over a ten-year period. A transparent and incentive-aligned route to sustainable sovereign debt management is provided by TSDCM.
Published
2026-04-07
How to Cite
Firouzi, K. (2026). A Tokenized Sovereign Debt Conversion Mechanism for Dynamic Public Debt Reduction. Statistics, Optimization & Information Computing. https://doi.org/10.19139/soic-2310-5070-3108
Issue
Online First
Section
Research Articles
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