Application of Aalen’s additive regression model and the Cox proportional hazards to model HIV/AIDS progression

Abstract

Background and Objective: Over thirty-nine million individuals globally are living with HIV, and during the past three decades, HIV/AIDS has claimed millions of lives globally. The study's primary goal was to determine the variables that affect the course of HIV/AIDS in individuals receiving antiretroviral therapy, including body mass index, age, gender, TB before treatment, response to treatment, WHO stage baseline, and CD4 baseline. Materials and Methods: The research employed a cohort analysis of surveillance data from the HIV Wellness Clinic in the province of Limpopo, South Africa, for 318 HIV-positive patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The effects of covariates were evaluated in this study using Aalen's additive regression model and the Cox regression model in comparison. Results: HIV/AIDS progression for patients receiving treatment therapy has a significant association with CD4 baseline, gender, age, and development of tuberculosis during treatment, according to results from Aalen's additive regression and Cox regression models. With a very modest p value<0.01, both models demonstrate that the CD4 baseline is highly significant when compared to the other factors in the models. Compared to female patients, male patients experience higher rates of immune system degradation. Compared to individuals with baseline CD4+ cell counts over 350 cells/mm3, patients with baseline CD4+ cell counts below 350 cells/mm3 have higher rates of immunological recovery. Conclusion: This study has reinforced the need for early detection of TB in HIV-infected patients so that these two diseases are concurrently managed for the benefit of the infected individual.